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Automobile industry: policy + electrification drives the acceleration of automobile lightweight

2020-11-19 243

Source: Fortune Power Network




Author: Cui Yan




Driven by energy conservation and emission reduction policies and acceleration of electrification, the lightweight of automobiles is accelerating, mainly through the use of lightweight materials with specific lightweight processes. Among them, aluminum alloy and hot-formed high-strength steel are the mainstream, and chassis lightweight is New Blue Ocean, aluminum battery box is a new increment.




Policy + electrification drives the acceleration of automobile lightweight




The lightweight of a car refers to reducing the quality of the car body as much as possible while maintaining the strength and safety performance of the car. (1) Promotion of energy saving and emission reduction policies: For every 10% reduction in the weight of a traditional car, the fuel consumption will be reduced by 6%-8%. my country’s fuel consumption target values for 2020 and 2025 are 5L/100km and 4L/100km, respectively, and the actual value in 2019 is 5.7L/100km. There is still a gap from the target value. Under policy requirements, OEMs have accelerated their lightweight layout. (2) Electrified acceleration drive: New energy vehicles have a more urgent need for lightweight. For every 10kg reduction in the weight of pure electric vehicles, the cruising range can increase by 2.5km. According to IEA data, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles (BEV and PHEV, the same below) in 2019 is 2.6%, of which China is 4.9%, and it is expected to increase to 16%/25% in 2025. Corresponding to sales performance, global new energy vehicle sales in 2019 were 2.102 million, of which China's new energy vehicle sales were 1.060 million, which is expected to increase to 14/6 million in 2025. Tesla and Weilai Automobile lead the industry in lightweighting, forming their own unique technological advantages in material, process and structure lightweighting. Traditional car companies such as BYD, BAIC New Energy, Geely Automobile have also increased their lightweight layout. Therefore, driven by the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction and the demand for performance improvement of new energy vehicles, vehicle lightweighting is accelerating. According to the statistics of the International Aluminum Association, the amount of aluminum used for fuel and new energy vehicles in 2019 is 128/143KG respectively, and it is expected to reach 179/226KG in 2025.




The general trend of material lightweight aluminum alloy and hot-formed high-strength steel are the mainstream




There are currently three ways to achieve lightweighting: (1) Lightweight materials, such as using lighter high-strength steel, aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy, and carbon fiber composite materials to replace traditional ordinary steel structures; (2) Lightweight design , For example, through the development of a new car architecture to achieve lightweight, even optimize the number of body parts, reduce the size of parts, etc.; (3) Lightweight processes, such as thermoforming, laser tailor-welded blanks and other processes. Lightweight in practice is mainly achieved by using lightweight materials with specific lightweight technology to achieve weight reduction. At present, the most mainstream lightweight materials are high-strength steel and aluminum alloy materials. It is expected that high-strength steel and aluminum alloy will account for more than 85% of the automotive lightweight market in 2020, of which aluminum alloy accounts for nearly 65%. With magnesium and carbon fiber As the permeability increases, it is expected that the proportion of high-strength steel and aluminum alloy will drop to 75% in 2025, of which aluminum alloy will account for 60%.




New blue ocean aluminum battery box for lightweight chassis is a new increment




There are four main areas of automobile lightweight: lightweight body, lightweight chassis, lightweight power system, and lightweight interior and exterior trim. From the perspective of cost performance, due to the unsprung mass (control arms, calipers, wheels, etc. below the suspension), the cost-effective weight reduction is much higher than the sprung mass (the body structure above the suspension, etc.). Kilograms. In 2019, the domestic high-strength steel and aluminum alloy chassis market scales were respectively 13.9/138 billion yuan. With the gradual reduction of material costs and the upgrading of process manufacturing technology, it is expected to increase to 34/39.8 billion yuan in 2025. Among them, the penetration rate of aluminum alloy steering knuckle, subframe, control arm, and brake caliper in 2019 is 28%/10%/19%/6%, respectively, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 60%/25%/40%/ in 2025. 20%, the corresponding scale is 78/196/104/2.1 billion yuan. The lightweight development of new energy vehicles is faster. In 2019, the domestic new energy vehicle chassis lightweight market was 4.6 billion yuan. With the increase in new energy vehicle sales and the increase in lightweight penetration, it is expected to increase to 32 billion yuan in 2025. The CAGR reached 38%, of which the market size of aluminum battery box and subframe was RMB 18/75 billion, respectively, and the CAGR was 31%/55%.




Investment Advice




Driven by energy conservation and emission reduction policies and acceleration of electrification, automobile lightweighting is accelerating, among which chassis lightweighting is a new blue ocean, and the penetration rate of aluminum battery boxes, subframes, control arms, steering knuckles, etc. is continuously increasing, and thermoforming Body parts are also beginning to be used on a large scale, and domestic substitution is accelerating. We recommend focusing on the masters of chassis lightweighting, aluminum battery box suppliers, the pioneers of thermoformed body parts and the hidden champions of precision aluminum parts.




Risk warning: The sales volume of the automobile industry is not as good as expected; the policy implementation is not as good as expected; the product development is not as expected; the layout of auto companies is not as good as expected, etc.


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